Dolomiti Bellunesi 2–1 Caldiero Terme

Dolomiti Bellunesi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Caldiero Terme

S. Corbanese 55'

A. Raimondi 39'

L. Zerbato 90'

12/12/2021

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 14Stadio Comunale di Sedico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi41%

×Draw26%

Caldiero Terme33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dolomiti BellunesiExpected goals in this matchCaldiero Terme

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.21

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.39

Caldiero Terme

1.21

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 15% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 47 away

1.59

creates per match

1.34

1.07

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.59

Caldiero Terme

1.34

allows per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.07

Caldiero Terme

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolomiti Bellunesi ↓

Caldiero Terme →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw

67%

Dolomiti Bellunesi or Caldiero Terme

74%

Draw or Caldiero Terme

59%

Winning margin

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+

19%

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals

75%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals

40%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals

16%

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals

70%

Caldiero Terme 2+ goals

34%

Caldiero Terme 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)

56%

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolomiti Bellunesi at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Caldiero Terme away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.59 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.39

Caldiero Terme attack 1.34 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more

41%

level

26%

Caldiero Terme scores more

33%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

A. Raimondi

55'

S. Corbanese

90'

L. Zerbato

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff