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Caldiero Terme vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
H. Gjoshi 39' (OG)
L. Zerbato 7'
S. Corbanese 84'
A. Cossalter 82'
D. Onescu 27'
F. De Paoli 8'
4/27/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Stadio Comunale di Caldiero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Caldiero Terme34%
×Draw26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldiero Terme
1.26
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.39

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 10% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 70 away

creates per match

Caldiero Terme
1.29
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Caldiero Terme
1.31
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldiero Terme ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Caldiero Terme or draw
60%
Caldiero Terme or Dolomiti Bellunesi
74%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
66%

Winning margin

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
15%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
72%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
36%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
13%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
75%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
40%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
46%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldiero Terme at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldiero Terme attack 1.29 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Caldiero Terme scores more
34%
level
26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
40%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
L. Zerbato
8'
F. De Paoli
27'
D. Onescu
39'
H. GjoshiOwn goal
82'
A. Cossalter
84'
S. Corbanese

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caldiero Terme vs Dolomiti Bellunesi

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Caldiero Terme 4-2 in Serie D - Girone C on April 27, 2022.

Goals: L. Zerbato (7'), F. De Paoli (8'), D. Onescu (27'), H. Gjoshi (39' o.g.), A. Cossalter (82'), S. Corbanese (84').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Caldiero in Caldiero.