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Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Atletico Castegnato — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
F. De Paoli 45+3'
S. Baldassar 45'
2/18/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 23Stadio Comunale di Sedico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi51%
×Draw25%
Atletico Castegnato24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.65
Atletico Castegnato
1.06

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 56% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.59
Atletico Castegnato
1.06

allows per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.07
Atletico Castegnato
1.71

finishing

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par
Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolomiti Bellunesi ↓

Atletico Castegnato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw
76%
Dolomiti Bellunesi or Atletico Castegnato
75%
Draw or Atletico Castegnato
49%

Winning margin

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
27%
Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
81%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
49%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
23%
Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
65%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
29%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
68%
Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolomiti Bellunesi at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Atletico Castegnato away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.59 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.06 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
51%
level
25%
Atletico Castegnato scores more
24%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
S. Baldassar
45+3'
F. De Paoli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Dolomiti Bellunesi 2–0 Atletico Castegnato

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Atletico Castegnato 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 18, 2024.

Goals: S. Baldassar (45'), F. De Paoli (45+3').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Sedico in Sedico.