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Atletico Castegnato vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
R. Rusconi 90+6' (pen)
N. Esposito 69'
M. Tirelli 8'
P. Biancheri 90+3', 87'
M. Nunic 45', 42'
P. Perez 12'
10/15/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 6Stadio Comunale Castegnato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Castegnato30%
×Draw25%
Dolomiti Bellunesi46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Castegnato
1.23
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.59

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.24
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.71
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Castegnato ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atletico Castegnato or draw
54%
Atletico Castegnato or Dolomiti Bellunesi
75%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
70%

Winning margin

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
12%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
71%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
35%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
13%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
80%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
47%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
39%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Castegnato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.24 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atletico Castegnato scores more
30%
level
25%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
46%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Tirelli
12'
P. Perez
42'
M. Nunic
45'
M. Nunic
69'
N. Esposito
87'
P. Biancheri
90+3'
P. Biancheri
90+6'
R. RusconiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Atletico Castegnato 3–5 Dolomiti Bellunesi

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Atletico Castegnato 5-3 in Serie D - Girone C on October 15, 2023.

Goals: M. Tirelli (8'), P. Perez (12'), M. Nunic (42', 45'), N. Esposito (69'), P. Biancheri (87', 90+3'), R. Rusconi (90+6' pen).

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Castegnato in Castegnato.