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Dodoma Jiji vs Mashujaa — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mashujaa
Mashujaa
2/11/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 15Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dodoma Jiji45%
×Draw30%
Mashujaa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dodoma Jiji
1.17
Mashujaa
0.78

Dodoma Jiji creates 50% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji
1.01
Mashujaa
0.71

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji
0.85
Mashujaa
1.33

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par
Mashujaa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Mashujaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw
75%
Dodoma Jiji or Mashujaa
70%
Draw or Mashujaa
55%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
19%
Mashujaa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
69%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
33%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
11%
Mashujaa 1+ goals
54%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
18%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
65%
Mashujaa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.85 · 91 matches

Mashujaa away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.01 + Mashujaa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mashujaa attack 0.71 + Dodoma Jiji defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more
45%
level
30%
Mashujaa scores more
25%

Dodoma Jiji at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dodoma Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dodoma Jiji vs Mashujaa

Dodoma Jiji and Mashujaa drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Jamhuri Stadium in Dodoma.