Dock Sud 0–2 Real Pilar: Result & Stats

Dock Sud

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Pilar

B. Martin 88'

D. Vergara 74'

9/29/2025

Primera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 15Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Dock Sud33%

×Draw31%

Real Pilar36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dock SudExpected goals in this matchReal Pilar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.02

Dock Sud

0.97

Real Pilar

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 35 away

1.18

creates per match

0.97

1.06

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Dock Sud

1.18

Real Pilar

0.97

allows per match

Dock Sud

1.06

Real Pilar

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Real Pilar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Real Pilar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw

64%

Dock Sud or Real Pilar

69%

Draw or Real Pilar

67%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+

12%

Real Pilar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals

62%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

25%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

7%

Real Pilar 1+ goals

64%

Real Pilar 2+ goals

27%

Real Pilar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

48%

Real Pilar (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.06 · 87 matches

Real Pilar away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.77 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.18 + Real Pilar defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.97

Real Pilar attack 0.97 + Dock Sud defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dock Sud scores more

33%

level

31%

Real Pilar scores more

36%

Real Pilar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real Pilar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

B. Villalba

53'

D. Vergara

58'

T. Luna

62'

J. Gonzalez← Z. Zegarra

64'

D. Arias

67'

L. Chambi← J. Ochoa

74'

D. Vergara

77'

B. Martin← D. Vergara

77'

M. D. Riquelme← J. Moran

81'

D. Meza Montiel← T. Luna

81'

V. Quevedo← S. Collares

81'

R. Perez← E. Melillo

83'

I. Smith← M. Gomez

86'

L. Monge

86'

F. Mesa← B. Gauna

88'

B. Martin

Dock

Real

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

⚽

▼

Vergara

8

▼

Ochoa

9

▼

Moran

10

▼

11

1

2

3

▼

Collares

4

Durante

5

▼

Luna

6

Lopez

7

▼

Gauna

8

Villalba

9

Molina

10

▼

Zegarra

11

▼

Melillo

Manager: M. Córdoba

62'▲J. Gonzalez←▼Z. Zegarra

81'▲D. Meza Montiel←▼T. Luna

81'▲V. Quevedo←▼S. Collares

81'▲R. Perez←▼E. Melillo

86'▲F. Mesa←▼B. Gauna

Dock Sud substitutes

12Cuenca13Orellana14Montiel15Vlaeminch16Quevedo17Avalos18Perez19Gonzalez20Mesa

Manager: G. Torres

67'▲L. Chambi←▼J. Ochoa

77'▲B. Martin←▼D. Vergara

77'▲M. D. Riquelme←▼J. Moran

83'▲I. Smith←▼M. Gomez

Real Pilar substitutes

12Sanchez13Barreiro14Gallo15Chambi16Smith17Martin18Riquelme19Dulon20Vidal