Dock Sud 1–0 Real Pilar: Result & Stats | Primera C

Dock Sud

FT

1 – 0

Real Pilar

L. Caruso 82' (pen)

8/14/2021

Primera C · Apertura - 4Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Dock Sud37%

×Draw31%

Real Pilar32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dock SudExpected goals in this matchReal Pilar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.95

Dock Sud

1.03

Real Pilar

0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 97 away

1.22

creates per match

1.14

0.77

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Dock Sud

1.22

Real Pilar

1.14

allows per match

Dock Sud

0.77

Real Pilar

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Real Pilar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Real Pilar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw

68%

Dock Sud or Real Pilar

69%

Draw or Real Pilar

63%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+

14%

Real Pilar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals

64%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

28%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

9%

Real Pilar 1+ goals

61%

Real Pilar 2+ goals

25%

Real Pilar 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

53%

Real Pilar (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.77 · 65 matches

Real Pilar away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.84 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.22 + Real Pilar defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.03

Real Pilar attack 1.14 + Dock Sud defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dock Sud scores more

37%

level

31%

Real Pilar scores more

32%

Dock Sud at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'

L. CarusoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff