Dobrudzha 2–1 CSKA 1948: Result & Stats

Dobrudzha

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CSKA 1948

8/8/2025

First League · Round 4Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dobrudzha31%

×Draw28%

CSKA 194841%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobrudzhaExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.27

Dobrudzha

1.08

CSKA 1948

1.27

CSKA 1948 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 105 away

1.06

creates per match

1.22

1.33

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Dobrudzha

1.06

CSKA 1948

1.22

allows per match

Dobrudzha

1.33

CSKA 1948

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

CSKA 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw

59%

Dobrudzha or CSKA 1948

72%

Draw or CSKA 1948

69%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

12%

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

66%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

29%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

10%

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

72%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

36%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

44%

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.06 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

CSKA 1948 attack 1.22 + Dobrudzha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dobrudzha scores more

31%

level

28%

CSKA 1948 scores more

41%

CSKA 1948 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff