Dobrudzha 0–0 CSKA 1948: Result & Stats

Dobrudzha

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CSKA 1948

4/6/2019

Second League · Round 23Stadion Druzhba (Dobrich)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Dobrudzha35%

×Draw27%

CSKA 194838%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobrudzhaExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.26

Dobrudzha

1.19

CSKA 1948

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 25 away

1.43

creates per match

1.64

0.89

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Dobrudzha

1.43

CSKA 1948

1.64

allows per match

Dobrudzha

0.89

CSKA 1948

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

CSKA 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw

62%

Dobrudzha or CSKA 1948

73%

Draw or CSKA 1948

65%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

14%

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

70%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

33%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

12%

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

72%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

36%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

48%

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + CSKA 1948 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.19

CSKA 1948 attack 1.64 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dobrudzha scores more

35%

level

27%

CSKA 1948 scores more

38%

CSKA 1948 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

C. Ivaylov← A. Ramadan

46'

R. Bozhilov← I. Petkov

79'

K. Petkov← E. Mukanya

88'

R. Krastev← N. Minkov

90+2'

D. Kadir← P. Tonchev

Dobrudzha

CSKA

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Georgiev

79'▲K. Petkov←▼E. Mukanya

88'▲R. Krastev←▼N. Minkov

90+2'▲D. Kadir←▼P. Tonchev

Dobrudzha substitutes

PetkovKrastevKadirKumanovAngelovDimitrovTiron

Manager: P. Petkov

46'▲C. Ivaylov←▼A. Ramadan

46'▲R. Bozhilov←▼I. Petkov

CSKA 1948 substitutes

IvaylovBozhilovBurovValkovHristovGenchevStoichkov

Second League: Dobrudzha 0–0 CSKA 1948

Dobrudzha and CSKA 1948 drew 0-0 in Second League on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Druzhba (Dobrich).

Dobrudzha vs CSKA 1948 — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League: Dobrudzha 0–0 CSKA 1948