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Dobříš vs Český Brod — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Dobříš
Dobříš
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Český Brod
Český Brod
5/7/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 24UMT Dobříš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dobříš36%
×Draw24%
Český Brod40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobříš
1.47
Český Brod
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 62 away

creates per match

Dobříš
1.63
Český Brod
1.08

allows per match

Dobříš
2.04
Český Brod
1.31

finishing

Dobříš+0.00on par
Český Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobříš ↓

Český Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dobříš or draw
60%
Dobříš or Český Brod
76%
Draw or Český Brod
64%

Winning margin

Dobříš wins by 2+
17%
Český Brod wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dobříš 1+ goals
77%
Dobříš 2+ goals
43%
Dobříš 3+ goals
18%
Český Brod 1+ goals
79%
Český Brod 2+ goals
46%
Český Brod 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dobříš (draw refunded)
47%
Český Brod (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobříš at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Český Brod away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobříš attack 1.63 + Český Brod defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Český Brod attack 1.08 + Dobříš defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dobříš scores more
36%
level
24%
Český Brod scores more
40%

Český Brod at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Český Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Dobříš 0–1 Český Brod

Český Brod beat Dobříš 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at UMT Dobříš in Dobříš.