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Český Brod vs Dobříš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Český Brod
Český Brod
FT
2 – 1
Dobříš
Dobříš
10/5/20194. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 9Stadion Na Kutilce (Český Brod)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Český Brod72%
×Draw15%
Dobříš13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český Brod
2.80
Dobříš
1.11

Český Brod creates 152% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 24 away

creates per match

Český Brod
2.18
Dobříš
0.96

allows per match

Český Brod
1.26
Dobříš
3.42

finishing

Český Brod+0.00on par
Dobříš+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český Brod ↓

Dobříš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Český Brod or draw
87%
Český Brod or Dobříš
85%
Draw or Dobříš
28%

Winning margin

Český Brod wins by 2+
51%
Dobříš wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Český Brod 1+ goals
94%
Český Brod 2+ goals
76%
Český Brod 3+ goals
52%
Dobříš 1+ goals
67%
Dobříš 2+ goals
30%
Dobříš 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Český Brod (draw refunded)
85%
Dobříš (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český Brod at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.26 · 61 matches

Dobříš away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český Brod attack 2.18 + Dobříš defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.80

Dobříš attack 0.96 + Český Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Český Brod scores more
72%
level
15%
Dobříš scores more
13%

Český Brod at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Český Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Český Brod 2–1 Dobříš

Český Brod beat Dobříš 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Na Kutilce (Český Brod).