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Dobříš vs Arsenal Česká Lípa — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Dobříš
Dobříš
CANC
14:30
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Arsenal Česká Lípa
4/10/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 19UMT Dobříš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dobříš27%
×Draw21%
Arsenal Česká Lípa52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobříš
1.47
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.09

Arsenal Česká Lípa creates 42% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 35 away

creates per match

Dobříš
1.63
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.14

allows per match

Dobříš
2.04
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.31

finishing

Dobříš+0.00on par
Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobříš ↓

Arsenal Česká Lípa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dobříš or draw
48%
Dobříš or Arsenal Česká Lípa
79%
Draw or Arsenal Česká Lípa
73%

Winning margin

Dobříš wins by 2+
12%
Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Dobříš 1+ goals
77%
Dobříš 2+ goals
43%
Dobříš 3+ goals
18%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals
88%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals
62%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Dobříš (draw refunded)
34%
Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobříš at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobříš attack 1.63 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 2.14 + Dobříš defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dobříš scores more
27%
level
21%
Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more
52%

Arsenal Česká Lípa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arsenal Česká Lípa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dobříš vs Arsenal Česká Lípa — Match Preview

Dobříš face Arsenal Česká Lípa on April 10, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dobříš host Arsenal Česká Lípa at UMT Dobříš.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.