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Arsenal Česká Lípa vs Dobříš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Arsenal Česká Lípa
Arsenal Česká Lípa
FT
3 – 2
Dobříš
Dobříš
8/21/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 4Městský stadion u Ploučnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa73%
×Draw15%
Dobříš12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.96
Dobříš
1.17

Arsenal Česká Lípa creates 153% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 24 away

creates per match

Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.50
Dobříš
0.96

allows per match

Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.39
Dobříš
3.42

finishing

Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par
Dobříš+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Česká Lípa ↓

Dobříš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Arsenal Česká Lípa or draw
88%
Arsenal Česká Lípa or Dobříš
85%
Draw or Dobříš
27%

Winning margin

Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+
53%
Dobříš wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals
95%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals
79%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals
55%
Dobříš 1+ goals
69%
Dobříš 2+ goals
33%
Dobříš 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)
85%
Dobříš (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Česká Lípa at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Dobříš away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 2.50 + Dobříš defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.96

Dobříš attack 0.96 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more
73%
level
15%
Dobříš scores more
12%

Arsenal Česká Lípa at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Arsenal Česká Lípa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Arsenal Česká Lípa 3–2 Dobříš

Arsenal Česká Lípa beat Dobříš 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Městský stadion u Ploučnice in Česká Lípa.