Dob 1–1 Brda Dobrovo: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Dob

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Brda Dobrovo

E. Tiganj 2'

R. Bužinel 58' (pen)

8/17/2019

2. SNL · Round 4Športni park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dob52%

×Draw22%

Brda Dobrovo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobExpected goals in this matchBrda Dobrovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.39

Dob

2.04

Brda Dobrovo

1.39

Dob creates 47% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 23 away

1.78

creates per match

1.00

1.78

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Dob

1.78

Brda Dobrovo

1.00

allows per match

Dob

1.78

Brda Dobrovo

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dob+0.00on par

Brda Dobrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dob ↓

Brda Dobrovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Dob or draw

74%

Dob or Brda Dobrovo

78%

Draw or Brda Dobrovo

48%

Winning margin

Dob wins by 2+

31%

Brda Dobrovo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dob 1+ goals

87%

Dob 2+ goals

60%

Dob 3+ goals

33%

Brda Dobrovo 1+ goals

75%

Brda Dobrovo 2+ goals

40%

Brda Dobrovo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dob (draw refunded)

67%

Brda Dobrovo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dob at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

Brda Dobrovo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dob attack 1.78 + Brda Dobrovo defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.04

Brda Dobrovo attack 1.00 + Dob defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dob scores more

52%

level

22%

Brda Dobrovo scores more

26%

Dob at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

E. Tiganj

58'

R. BužinelPenalty

60'

K. Jogan← Dawoud Jalinous

67'

D. Frelih← T. Golob

68'

T. Stankovič← K. Kunstelj

69'

D. Zenković← L. Gajič

74'

I. Kondič← G. Hrovat

76'

M. Perše← A. Musić

Dob

Brda

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: N. Toševski

68'▲T. Stankovič←▼K. Kunstelj

69'▲D. Zenković←▼L. Gajič

74'▲I. Kondič←▼G. Hrovat

Dob substitutes

StankovičZenkovićKondičMladenovičTratnikGuberacAvbelj

Manager: D. Peršič

60'▲K. Jogan←▼Dawoud Jalinous

67'▲D. Frelih←▼T. Golob

76'▲M. Perše←▼A. Musić

Brda Dobrovo substitutes

JoganFrelihPeršeJusufagićBužinelPetrovčič