Brda Dobrovo 3–3 Dob: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Brda Dobrovo

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Dob

U. Celcer 78' (pen), 63' (pen), 23' (pen)

T. Stankovič 90+2'

K. Šipek 70'

D. Jugovar 6'

11/24/2019

2. SNL · Round 19Športni park Vipolže

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Brda Dobrovo29%

×Draw23%

Dob47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brda DobrovoExpected goals in this matchDob

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.75

Brda Dobrovo

1.33

Dob

1.75

Dob creates 32% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 51 away

0.86

creates per match

1.45

2.05

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Brda Dobrovo

0.86

Dob

1.45

allows per match

Brda Dobrovo

2.05

Dob

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brda Dobrovo+0.00on par

Dob+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brda Dobrovo ↓

Dob →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Brda Dobrovo or draw

53%

Brda Dobrovo or Dob

77%

Draw or Dob

71%

Winning margin

Brda Dobrovo wins by 2+

13%

Dob wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Brda Dobrovo 1+ goals

74%

Brda Dobrovo 2+ goals

38%

Brda Dobrovo 3+ goals

15%

Dob 1+ goals

83%

Dob 2+ goals

52%

Dob 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Brda Dobrovo (draw refunded)

38%

Dob (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brda Dobrovo at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

Dob away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brda Dobrovo attack 0.86 + Dob defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dob attack 1.45 + Brda Dobrovo defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Brda Dobrovo scores more

29%

level

23%

Dob scores more

47%

Dob at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

D. Jugovar

23'

U. CelcerPenalty

52'

Dawoud Jalinous← Jure Bužinel

60'

D. Zenković← M. Funtek

63'

U. CelcerPenalty

70'

K. Šipek

75'

D. Frelih← J. Humar

78'

U. CelcerPenalty

79'

E. Tiganj← D. Petrovič

84'

T. Stankovič← I. Kondič

86'

T. Golob← R. Bužinel

90+2'

T. Stankovič

Brda

Dob

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Badžim

52'▲Dawoud Jalinous←▼Jure Bužinel

75'▲D. Frelih←▼J. Humar

86'▲T. Golob←▼R. Bužinel

Brda Dobrovo substitutes

JalinousFrelihGolobMusićJusufagićPetrovčičPerše

Manager: N. Toševski

60'▲D. Zenković←▼M. Funtek

79'▲E. Tiganj←▼D. Petrovič

84'▲T. Stankovič←▼I. Kondič

Dob substitutes

ZenkovićTiganjStankovičMladenovičKunsteljAvsecZupančič