Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Djursland vs Aarhus Fremad II — League #127 2026

Djursland
Djursland
FT
0 – 7
Aarhus Fremad II
Aarhus Fremad II
10/1/2022League #127League #127 · Group 4 - 10HSM Arena Grenå

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Djursland26%
×Draw18%
Aarhus Fremad II55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djursland
1.84
Aarhus Fremad II
2.69

Aarhus Fremad II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Djursland
1.88
Aarhus Fremad II
3.00

allows per match

Djursland
2.38
Aarhus Fremad II
1.80

finishing

Djursland+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djursland ↓

Aarhus Fremad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Djursland or draw
45%
Djursland or Aarhus Fremad II
82%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad II
74%

Winning margin

Djursland wins by 2+
13%
Aarhus Fremad II wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Djursland 1+ goals
84%
Djursland 2+ goals
55%
Djursland 3+ goals
28%
Aarhus Fremad II 1+ goals
93%
Aarhus Fremad II 2+ goals
74%
Aarhus Fremad II 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Djursland (draw refunded)
32%
Aarhus Fremad II (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djursland at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

Aarhus Fremad II away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djursland attack 1.88 + Aarhus Fremad II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.84

Aarhus Fremad II attack 3.00 + Djursland defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Djursland scores more
26%
level
18%
Aarhus Fremad II scores more
55%

Aarhus Fremad II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djursland vs Aarhus Fremad II

Aarhus Fremad II beat Djursland 7-0 in League #127 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at HSM Arena Grenå in Grenaa.