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Aarhus Fremad II vs Djursland — League #127 2026

Aarhus Fremad II
Aarhus Fremad II
FT
3 – 0
Djursland
Djursland
8/8/2022League #127League #127 · Group 4 - 1Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aarhus Fremad II52%
×Draw24%
Djursland25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus Fremad II
1.72
Djursland
1.11

Aarhus Fremad II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad II
2.00
Djursland
1.22

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad II
1.00
Djursland
1.44

finishing

Aarhus Fremad II+0.00on par
Djursland+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad II ↓

Djursland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad II or draw
75%
Aarhus Fremad II or Djursland
76%
Draw or Djursland
48%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad II wins by 2+
28%
Djursland wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad II 1+ goals
82%
Aarhus Fremad II 2+ goals
51%
Aarhus Fremad II 3+ goals
25%
Djursland 1+ goals
67%
Djursland 2+ goals
30%
Djursland 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad II (draw refunded)
68%
Djursland (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Djursland away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad II attack 2.00 + Djursland defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Djursland attack 1.22 + Aarhus Fremad II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aarhus Fremad II scores more
52%
level
24%
Djursland scores more
25%

Aarhus Fremad II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aarhus Fremad II vs Djursland

Aarhus Fremad II beat Djursland 3-0 in League #127 on August 8, 2022.

The match was played at Riisvangen Stadion in Århus.