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Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
3/7/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Djurgardens IF30%
×Draw23%
Mjallby AIF47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.41
Mjallby AIF
1.81

Mjallby AIF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
2.32
Mjallby AIF
2.79

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
0.84
Mjallby AIF
0.50

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par
Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Mjallby AIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
53%
Djurgardens IF or Mjallby AIF
77%
Draw or Mjallby AIF
70%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
13%
Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
76%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
41%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
17%
Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
84%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
54%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
39%
Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 2.32 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Mjallby AIF attack 2.79 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
30%
level
23%
Mjallby AIF scores more
47%

Mjallby AIF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF

Mjallby AIF beat Djurgardens IF 2-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.