Djurgardens IF 4–1 Kalmar FF: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Kalmar FF

3/6/2021

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Djurgardens IF46%

×Draw23%

Kalmar FF30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchKalmar FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.39

Djurgardens IF

1.76

Kalmar FF

1.39

Djurgardens IF creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

2.32

creates per match

1.93

0.84

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

2.32

Kalmar FF

1.93

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

0.84

Kalmar FF

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Kalmar FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

70%

Djurgardens IF or Kalmar FF

77%

Draw or Kalmar FF

54%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

25%

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

83%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

52%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

26%

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

75%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

40%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

60%

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 2.32 + Kalmar FF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.76

Kalmar FF attack 1.93 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

46%

level

23%

Kalmar FF scores more

30%

Djurgardens IF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff