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Djurgardens IF vs Dalkurd FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
2/22/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Djurgardens IF61%
×Draw20%
Dalkurd FF19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
2.27
Dalkurd FF
1.20

Djurgardens IF creates 89% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
2.32
Dalkurd FF
1.56

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
0.84
Dalkurd FF
2.22

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
81%
Djurgardens IF or Dalkurd FF
80%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
39%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
39%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
90%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
66%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
39%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
70%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
34%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
76%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 2.32 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.27

Dalkurd FF attack 1.56 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
61%
level
20%
Dalkurd FF scores more
19%

Djurgardens IF at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Djurgardens IF 3–2 Dalkurd FF

Djurgardens IF beat Dalkurd FF 3-2 in Svenska Cupen on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.