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Dalkurd FF vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
11/5/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 29Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalkurd FF25%
×Draw24%
Djurgardens IF51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.14
Djurgardens IF
1.73

Djurgardens IF creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 124 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.20
Djurgardens IF
1.40

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
2.07
Djurgardens IF
1.07

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
49%
Dalkurd FF or Djurgardens IF
76%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
75%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
10%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
68%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
32%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
11%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
82%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
52%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
33%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.20 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Djurgardens IF attack 1.40 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
25%
level
24%
Djurgardens IF scores more
51%

Djurgardens IF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Dalkurd FF 1–2 Djurgardens IF

Djurgardens IF beat Dalkurd FF 2-1 in Allsvenskan on November 5, 2018.

The match was played at Gavlevallen in Gavle.