Djurgården W 2–1 Vittsjö W: Result & Stats

Djurgården W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vittsjö W

A. Lobanova 71'

S. Koyama 67'

T. Boychuk 41'

5/13/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 6Stockholms Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Djurgården W62%

×Draw21%

Vittsjö W17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgården WExpected goals in this matchVittsjö W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.97

Djurgården W

2.02

Vittsjö W

0.97

Djurgården W creates 108% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.05

creates per match

0.73

1.22

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Djurgården W

2.05

Vittsjö W

0.73

allows per match

Djurgården W

1.22

Vittsjö W

1.99

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Djurgården W-0.27scores less

Vittsjö W+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgården W ↓

Vittsjö W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Djurgården W or draw

83%

Djurgården W or Vittsjö W

79%

Draw or Vittsjö W

38%

Winning margin

Djurgården W wins by 2+

37%

Vittsjö W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Djurgården W 1+ goals

87%

Djurgården W 2+ goals

60%

Djurgården W 3+ goals

33%

Vittsjö W 1+ goals

62%

Vittsjö W 2+ goals

25%

Vittsjö W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Djurgården W (draw refunded)

78%

Vittsjö W (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgården W at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Vittsjö W away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.99 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgården W attack 2.05 + Vittsjö W defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.02

Vittsjö W attack 0.73 + Djurgården W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Djurgården W scores more

62%

level

21%

Vittsjö W scores more

17%

Djurgården W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Djurgården W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

T. Boychuk

Vittsjö W · F

7.6

Match Events

41'

T. Boychuk

47'

Matilda Plan

63'

J. Leas← S. van den Bulk

67'

S. Koyama

68'

L. Duras← Ana Teles

71'

A. Lobanova

75'

J. Ayers← L. Sällström

75'

H. Kollanen← K. Adamek

89'

C. Rubensson← J. Tunturi

90+3'

S. Yekka← A. Lobanova

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DjurgårdenVittsjö

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots8

0.99Expected Goals (xG)0.92

3Corners7

8Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots8

4On Target3

6Off Target3

2Blocked2

5Inside Box6

7Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

369Total Passes344

283Accurate Passes247

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1