Djurgården W 3–2 Linköping W: Result & Stats

Djurgården W

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Linköping W

M. Wahlstrom 49', 2'

O. Ulenius 26'

M. Gros 75'

K. Melenhorst 31'

9/28/2025

Damallsvenskan · Round 20Stockholms Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Djurgården W52%

×Draw22%

Linköping W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgården WExpected goals in this matchLinköping W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.27

Djurgården W

1.90

Linköping W

1.27

Djurgården W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.91

creates per match

1.22

1.33

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Djurgården W

1.91

Linköping W

1.22

allows per match

Djurgården W

1.33

Linköping W

1.89

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Djurgården W-0.24scores less

Linköping W-0.36scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgården W ↓

Linköping W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Djurgården W or draw

74%

Djurgården W or Linköping W

78%

Draw or Linköping W

48%

Winning margin

Djurgården W wins by 2+

30%

Linköping W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Djurgården W 1+ goals

85%

Djurgården W 2+ goals

56%

Djurgården W 3+ goals

29%

Linköping W 1+ goals

72%

Linköping W 2+ goals

36%

Linköping W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Djurgården W (draw refunded)

67%

Linköping W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgården W at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Linköping W away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgården W attack 1.91 + Linköping W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.90

Linköping W attack 1.22 + Djurgården W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Djurgården W scores more

52%

level

22%

Linköping W scores more

26%

Djurgården W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Djurgården W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

M. Wahlstrom↳ T. Asland

26'

O. Ulenius↳ S. Svendsen

31'

K. Melenhorst↳ P. Doran

49'

M. Wahlstrom↳ U. Watanabe

62'

L. Bjork← R. Osman

69'

L. Halttunen← E. Lundin

75'

M. Gros↳ L. Bjork

77'

C. Ashe← A. Lobanova

84'

S. Yekka←

90+4'

M. Brenn

Djurgården

Linköping

1

6

16

26

3

A

Doran

18

Jongh

9

▼

Osman

25

Andersson

11

⚽

Gros

19

⚽

Melenhors

13

▼

Lundin

30

Bjorklund

3

▼

Lobanova

24

A

4

5

19

11

A

Asland

8

Pelgander

23

A

Watanabe

14

⚽2

Wahlstrom

7

⚽

Ulenius

Manager: Marcelo Alonso Fernández Figueroa

77'▲C. Ashe←▼A. Lobanova

84'▲S. Yekka←▼—

Djurgården W substitutes

53Redtzer6Jonasson12Yekka13Ashe15Cleve17Phair20Osigwe18Westlund

Manager: Willie Kirk

62'▲L. Bjork←▼R. Osman

69'▲L. Halttunen←▼E. Lundin

Linköping W substitutes

20Wiklund5Falkenteg12Alden14Dirdal15Bjork17Kitamura33Halttunen