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Djurgården W vs Linköping W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Djurgården W
Djurgården W
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Linköping W
Linköping W
M. Larsson 66'
S. Johansson 59'
N. Karlsson 40' (OG)
P. Hammarlund 26'
T. Almqvist 19'
P. Doran 90+2'
L. Björk 88'
9/17/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 19Stockholms Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Djurgården W52%
×Draw22%
Linköping W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgården W
1.90
Linköping W
1.27

Djurgården W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Djurgården W
1.91
Linköping W
1.22

allows per match

Djurgården W
1.33
Linköping W
1.89

finishing

Djurgården W-0.24scores less
Linköping W-0.36scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgården W ↓

Linköping W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Djurgården W or draw
74%
Djurgården W or Linköping W
78%
Draw or Linköping W
48%

Winning margin

Djurgården W wins by 2+
30%
Linköping W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Djurgården W 1+ goals
85%
Djurgården W 2+ goals
56%
Djurgården W 3+ goals
29%
Linköping W 1+ goals
72%
Linköping W 2+ goals
36%
Linköping W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Djurgården W (draw refunded)
67%
Linköping W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgården W at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Linköping W away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgården W attack 1.91 + Linköping W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.90

Linköping W attack 1.22 + Djurgården W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Djurgården W scores more
52%
level
22%
Linköping W scores more
26%

Djurgården W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Djurgården W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. LarssonDjurgården WDjurgården W · M
8.7

Match Events

19'
T. Almqvist
22'
S. Eriksson← E. Lennartsson
26'
P. Hammarlund
40'
N. KarlssonOwn goal
59'
S. Johansson
60'
L. Björk← I. Dirdal
60'
D. Pridham← A. Claypole
64'
Sara Eriksson
64'
S. Yekka← B. Kollmats
66'
M. Larsson
73'
A. Hedman← A. Lobanova
73'
L. Duras← T. Almqvist
73'
L. Hvarfner← T. Åsland
79'
T. Andersson← M. Grós
82'
Z. Jönsson← M. Larsson
87'
Louise Hvarfner
88'
L. Björk
90+2'
P. Doran

Possession

45%Djurgården

Shots

17Djurgården

Pass accuracy

49%Djurgården

Statistics

DjurgårdenLinköping
Overview
45%Possession55%
17Total Shots15
3.15Expected Goals (xG)1.49
4Corners8
6Fouls8
Shots
17Total Shots15
10On Target5
3Off Target3
4Blocked6
13Inside Box8
4Outside Box7
Passing
45%Possession55%
377Total Passes518
287Accurate Passes414
76%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
6Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Djurgården W vs Linköping W

Djurgården W beat Linköping W 5-2 in Damallsvenskan on September 17, 2024.

Goals: T. Almqvist (19'), P. Hammarlund (26'), N. Karlsson (40' o.g.), S. Johansson (59'), M. Larsson (66'), L. Björk (88'), P. Doran (90+2').

Linköping W controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stockholms Olympiastadion in Stockholm.