Djurgården W 2–1 Kristianstad W: Result & Stats

Djurgården W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kristianstad W

P. Hammarlund 89'

U. Watanabe 84'

V. Persson 9'

3/23/2025

Damallsvenskan · Round 1Stockholms Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Djurgården W44%

×Draw23%

Kristianstad W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgården WExpected goals in this matchKristianstad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.45

Djurgården W

1.73

Kristianstad W

1.45

Djurgården W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.66

creates per match

1.60

1.30

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Djurgården W

1.66

Kristianstad W

1.60

allows per match

Djurgården W

1.30

Kristianstad W

1.79

-0.66scores less than expected

finishing

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

Djurgården W-0.66scores less

Kristianstad W+0.57scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgården W ↓

Kristianstad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Djurgården W or draw

68%

Djurgården W or Kristianstad W

77%

Draw or Kristianstad W

56%

Winning margin

Djurgården W wins by 2+

23%

Kristianstad W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Djurgården W 1+ goals

82%

Djurgården W 2+ goals

52%

Djurgården W 3+ goals

25%

Kristianstad W 1+ goals

77%

Kristianstad W 2+ goals

42%

Kristianstad W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Djurgården W (draw refunded)

58%

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgården W at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 5 matches

Kristianstad W away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.79 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgården W attack 1.66 + Kristianstad W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kristianstad W attack 1.60 + Djurgården W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Djurgården W scores more

44%

level

23%

Kristianstad W scores more

32%

Djurgården W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Djurgården W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

T. Asland

Djurgården W · F

8.0

Match Events

9'

V. Persson↳ A. Johannsdottir

55'

Mathilde Janzen

55'

U. Watanabe← E. Westlund

55'

O. Ulenius← L. Duras

62'

A. Egner← R. Siemsen

62'

E. Alanen← M. Janzen

69'

M. Larsson← A. Jonasson

77'

Ebba Hed

80'

F. Widen← B. Olsson

80'

E. Broddheimer← K. Tryggvadottir

84'

Emilija Petrović

84'

U. Watanabe↳ P. Hammarlund

86'

Aleksandra Lobanova

89'

P. Hammarlund

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DjurgårdenKristianstad

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots6

2.90Expected Goals (xG)0.24

6Corners3

9Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots6

5On Target2

4Off Target3

2Blocked1

7Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

545Total Passes432

433Accurate Passes332

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0