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Djurgården W vs Kristianstad W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Djurgården W
Djurgården W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kristianstad W
Kristianstad W
6/16/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 11Stockholms Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Djurgården W49%
×Draw23%
Kristianstad W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgården W
1.88
Kristianstad W
1.37

Djurgården W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Djurgården W
2.05
Kristianstad W
1.52

allows per match

Djurgården W
1.22
Kristianstad W
1.70

finishing

Djurgården W-0.27scores less
Kristianstad W+0.73scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgården W ↓

Kristianstad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Djurgården W or draw
72%
Djurgården W or Kristianstad W
77%
Draw or Kristianstad W
51%

Winning margin

Djurgården W wins by 2+
28%
Kristianstad W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Djurgården W 1+ goals
85%
Djurgården W 2+ goals
56%
Djurgården W 3+ goals
29%
Kristianstad W 1+ goals
75%
Kristianstad W 2+ goals
40%
Kristianstad W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Djurgården W (draw refunded)
64%
Kristianstad W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgården W at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Kristianstad W away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgården W attack 2.05 + Kristianstad W defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.88

Kristianstad W attack 1.52 + Djurgården W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Djurgården W scores more
49%
level
23%
Kristianstad W scores more
28%

Djurgården W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Djurgården W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Damallsvenskan: Djurgården W 1–2 Kristianstad W

Kristianstad W beat Djurgården W 2-1 in Damallsvenskan on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stockholms Olympiastadion in Stockholm.