Djurgården W 1–2 Hammarby W: Result & Stats

Djurgården W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hammarby W

5/23/2022

Damallsvenskan · Round 10Stockholms Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Djurgården W28%

×Draw21%

Hammarby W51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgården WExpected goals in this matchHammarby W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.14

Djurgården W

1.54

Hammarby W

2.14

Hammarby W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.05

creates per match

3.06

1.22

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Djurgården W

2.05

Hammarby W

3.06

allows per match

Djurgården W

1.22

Hammarby W

1.03

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Djurgården W-0.27scores less

Hammarby W-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgården W ↓

Hammarby W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Djurgården W or draw

49%

Djurgården W or Hammarby W

79%

Draw or Hammarby W

72%

Winning margin

Djurgården W wins by 2+

13%

Hammarby W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Djurgården W 1+ goals

79%

Djurgården W 2+ goals

45%

Djurgården W 3+ goals

20%

Hammarby W 1+ goals

88%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

63%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Djurgården W (draw refunded)

35%

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgården W at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgården W attack 2.05 + Hammarby W defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hammarby W attack 3.06 + Djurgården W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Djurgården W scores more

28%

level

21%

Hammarby W scores more

51%

Hammarby W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff