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Diyala vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2025

Diyala
Diyala
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Erbil
Erbil
A. Abd 7'
S. Temirov 68' (pen)
12/22/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Diyala24%
×Draw26%
Erbil50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diyala
0.94
Erbil
1.49

Erbil creates 59% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

creates per match

Diyala
0.96
Erbil
1.54

allows per match

Diyala
1.44
Erbil
0.92

finishing

Diyala+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyala ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Diyala or draw
50%
Diyala or Erbil
74%
Draw or Erbil
76%

Winning margin

Diyala wins by 2+
8%
Erbil wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Diyala 1+ goals
61%
Diyala 2+ goals
24%
Diyala 3+ goals
7%
Erbil 1+ goals
77%
Erbil 2+ goals
44%
Erbil 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Diyala (draw refunded)
32%
Erbil (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyala at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyala attack 0.96 + Erbil defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Erbil attack 1.54 + Diyala defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Diyala scores more
24%
level
26%
Erbil scores more
50%

Erbil at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. Abd
68'
S. TemirovPenalty
86'
A. Raad
86'
A. Raad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Diyala 1 – 1 Erbil

Diyala and Erbil drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on December 22, 2025.

Goals: A. Abd (7'), S. Temirov (68' pen).