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Diyala vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2025

Diyala
Diyala
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Erbil
Erbil
5/12/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 33Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Diyala28%
×Draw27%
Erbil45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diyala
1.02
Erbil
1.36

Erbil creates 33% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Diyala
1.00
Erbil
1.45

allows per match

Diyala
1.28
Erbil
1.03

finishing

Diyala+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyala ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Diyala or draw
55%
Diyala or Erbil
73%
Draw or Erbil
72%

Winning margin

Diyala wins by 2+
10%
Erbil wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Diyala 1+ goals
64%
Diyala 2+ goals
27%
Diyala 3+ goals
8%
Erbil 1+ goals
74%
Erbil 2+ goals
39%
Erbil 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Diyala (draw refunded)
39%
Erbil (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyala attack 1.00 + Erbil defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Erbil attack 1.45 + Diyala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Diyala scores more
28%
level
27%
Erbil scores more
45%

Erbil at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Diyala 1–0 Erbil

Diyala beat Erbil 1-0 in Iraqi League on May 12, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Madina International Stadium in Baghdad.