Diyala 2–1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya: Result & Stats

Diyala

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Mustafa Mahmoud 90+3'

A. Sfaxi 37'

Issam Al Sabhi 88'

4/16/2025

Iraqi League · Round 28Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Diyala31%

×Draw29%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiyalaExpected goals in this matchAl Quwa Al Jawiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.20

Diyala

1.01

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.20

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 19% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 41 away

1.00

creates per match

1.12

1.28

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Diyala

1.00

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.12

allows per match

Diyala

1.28

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diyala+0.00on par

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyala ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Diyala or draw

60%

Diyala or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

71%

Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

69%

Winning margin

Diyala wins by 2+

11%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Diyala 1+ goals

64%

Diyala 2+ goals

27%

Diyala 3+ goals

8%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals

70%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals

34%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Diyala (draw refunded)

43%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyala attack 1.00 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.12 + Diyala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Diyala scores more

31%

level

29%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more

40%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

A. Sfaxi

88'

Issam Al Sabhi

90+3'

Mustafa Mahmoud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff