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Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Diyala — Iraqi League 2025

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Diyala
Diyala
A. H. Hatam 17'
S. Abdulameer 14'
C. Opare 21'
10/30/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya50%
×Draw27%
Diyala23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.46
Diyala
0.89

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 64% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 29 away

creates per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.76
Diyala
0.90

allows per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0.88
Diyala
1.17

finishing

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par
Diyala+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Quwa Al Jawiya ↓

Diyala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw
77%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya or Diyala
73%
Draw or Diyala
50%

Winning margin

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
25%
Diyala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
77%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
43%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
18%
Diyala 1+ goals
59%
Diyala 2+ goals
22%
Diyala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
69%
Diyala (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Diyala away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.76 + Diyala defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Diyala attack 0.90 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
50%
level
27%
Diyala scores more
23%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
S. Abdulameer
17'
A. H. Hatam
21'
C. Opare
69'
A. M. Sabarah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2–1 Diyala

Al Quwa Al Jawiya beat Diyala 2-1 in Iraqi League on October 30, 2025.

Goals: S. Abdulameer (14'), A. H. Hatam (17'), C. Opare (21').