Diriangén 7–0 Deportivo Ocotal: Result & Stats

Diriangén

FT

7 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Deportivo Ocotal

4/3/2024

Primera Division · Clausura - 11Estadio Cacique Diriangén

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Diriangén71%

×Draw18%

Deportivo Ocotal11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiriangénExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Ocotal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.78

Diriangén

2.27

Deportivo Ocotal

0.78

Diriangén creates 191% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 111 away

2.21

creates per match

0.86

0.70

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Diriangén

2.21

Deportivo Ocotal

0.86

allows per match

Diriangén

0.70

Deportivo Ocotal

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diriangén+0.00on par

Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diriangén ↓

Deportivo Ocotal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Diriangén or draw

89%

Diriangén or Deportivo Ocotal

82%

Draw or Deportivo Ocotal

29%

Winning margin

Diriangén wins by 2+

47%

Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Diriangén 1+ goals

90%

Diriangén 2+ goals

66%

Diriangén 3+ goals

39%

Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals

54%

Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals

18%

Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Diriangén (draw refunded)

86%

Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diriangén at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.70 · 149 matches

Deportivo Ocotal away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.33 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diriangén attack 2.21 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.27

Deportivo Ocotal attack 0.86 + Diriangén defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Diriangén scores more

71%

level

18%

Deportivo Ocotal scores more

11%

Diriangén at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Diriangén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff