Deportivo Ocotal 0–2 Diriangén: Result & Stats

Deportivo Ocotal

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Diriangén

A. Quesada 74'

J. Coronel 28'

9/30/2024

Primera Division · Apertura - 9Estadio Roy Fernando Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Deportivo Ocotal31%

×Draw27%

Diriangén41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo OcotalExpected goals in this matchDiriangén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.34

Deportivo Ocotal

1.13

Diriangén

1.34

Diriangén creates 19% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 147 away

1.21

creates per match

1.63

1.05

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Deportivo Ocotal

1.21

Diriangén

1.63

allows per match

Deportivo Ocotal

1.05

Diriangén

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

Diriangén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Ocotal ↓

Diriangén →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Ocotal or draw

59%

Deportivo Ocotal or Diriangén

73%

Draw or Diriangén

69%

Winning margin

Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+

13%

Diriangén wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals

11%

Diriangén 1+ goals

74%

Diriangén 2+ goals

39%

Diriangén 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)

43%

Diriangén (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Ocotal at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 109 matches

Diriangén away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.05 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Ocotal attack 1.21 + Diriangén defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Diriangén attack 1.63 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Ocotal scores more

31%

level

27%

Diriangén scores more

41%

Diriangén at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Diriangén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

32'

46'

71'

74'

83'

D. Delgado← M. Hernández

83'

M. Galvaliz← L. Torres

86'

F. Flores← J. Arteaga

Deportivo

Diriangén

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Gaitán

32'▲C. Roque←▼L. Morán

71'▲H. Amaya←▼E. Gómez

Deportivo Ocotal substitutes

RoqueAmayaIbarraHerreraGómez

Manager: J. Giacone

46'▲L. Torres←▼A. Reyes

83'▲D. Delgado←▼M. Hernández

83'▲M. Galvaliz←▼L. Torres

86'▲F. Flores←▼J. Arteaga

Diriangén substitutes

TorresDelgadoGalvalizFloresGonzálezZapataRocha

Match Recap: Deportivo Ocotal vs Diriangén

Diriangén beat Deportivo Ocotal 2-0 in Primera Division on September 30, 2024.

Goals: J. Coronel (28'), A. Quesada (74').

The match was played at Estadio Roy Fernando Bermúdez in Ocotal.

Deportivo Ocotal vs Diriangén — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Ocotal vs Diriangén