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Dire Dawa Kenema vs Awassa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
3/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Dire Dawa Kenema32%
×Draw28%
Awassa Kenema40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.09
Awassa Kenema
1.24

Awassa Kenema creates 14% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 100 away

creates per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
0.97
Awassa Kenema
1.14

allows per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.34
Awassa Kenema
1.22

finishing

Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par
Awassa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dire Dawa Kenema ↓

Awassa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dire Dawa Kenema or draw
60%
Dire Dawa Kenema or Awassa Kenema
72%
Draw or Awassa Kenema
68%

Winning margin

Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
13%
Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
66%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
30%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
10%
Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
71%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
35%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
45%
Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dire Dawa Kenema at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Awassa Kenema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.22 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.97 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Awassa Kenema attack 1.14 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
32%
level
28%
Awassa Kenema scores more
40%

Awassa Kenema at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dire Dawa Kenema vs Awassa Kenema

Awassa Kenema beat Dire Dawa Kenema 3-1 in Premier League on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.