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Awassa Kenema vs Dire Dawa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
2/22/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Awassa Kenema40%
×Draw28%
Dire Dawa Kenema31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Awassa Kenema
1.23
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.04

Awassa Kenema creates 18% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 100 away

creates per match

Awassa Kenema
1.23
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.99

allows per match

Awassa Kenema
1.09
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.24

finishing

Awassa Kenema+0.00on par
Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Awassa Kenema ↓

Dire Dawa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Awassa Kenema or draw
69%
Awassa Kenema or Dire Dawa Kenema
72%
Draw or Dire Dawa Kenema
60%

Winning margin

Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
18%
Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
71%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
35%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
13%
Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
65%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
28%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
57%
Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Awassa Kenema at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Dire Dawa Kenema away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Awassa Kenema attack 1.23 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.99 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Awassa Kenema scores more
40%
level
28%
Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
31%

Awassa Kenema at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Awassa Kenema 1–1 Dire Dawa Kenema

Awassa Kenema and Dire Dawa Kenema drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 22, 2026.