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Dire Dawa Kenema vs Addis Ababa Ketema — Premier League 2019

Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Addis Ababa Ketema
Addis Ababa Ketema
12/21/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dire Dawa Kenema33%
×Draw27%
Addis Ababa Ketema39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.15
Addis Ababa Ketema
1.27

Addis Ababa Ketema creates 10% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
0.97
Addis Ababa Ketema
1.20

allows per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.34
Addis Ababa Ketema
1.33

finishing

Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par
Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dire Dawa Kenema ↓

Addis Ababa Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dire Dawa Kenema or draw
61%
Dire Dawa Kenema or Addis Ababa Ketema
73%
Draw or Addis Ababa Ketema
67%

Winning margin

Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
14%
Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
68%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
32%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
11%
Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals
72%
Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals
36%
Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
46%
Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dire Dawa Kenema at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Addis Ababa Ketema away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.97 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.20 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
33%
level
27%
Addis Ababa Ketema scores more
39%

Addis Ababa Ketema at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Addis Ababa Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dire Dawa Kenema vs Addis Ababa Ketema

Dire Dawa Kenema beat Addis Ababa Ketema 1-0 in Premier League on December 21, 2021.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.