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Addis Ababa Ketema vs Dire Dawa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Addis Ababa Ketema
Addis Ababa Ketema
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
5/17/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Addis Ababa Ketema37%
×Draw27%
Dire Dawa Kenema36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.25
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

creates per match

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.27
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.99

allows per match

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.47
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.24

finishing

Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par
Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Addis Ababa Ketema ↓

Dire Dawa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Addis Ababa Ketema or draw
64%
Addis Ababa Ketema or Dire Dawa Kenema
73%
Draw or Dire Dawa Kenema
63%

Winning margin

Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+
16%
Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals
71%
Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals
36%
Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals
13%
Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
71%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
35%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)
51%
Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Addis Ababa Ketema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Dire Dawa Kenema away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.27 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.99 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Addis Ababa Ketema scores more
37%
level
27%
Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
36%

Addis Ababa Ketema at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Addis Ababa Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Addis Ababa Ketema vs Dire Dawa Kenema

Addis Ababa Ketema and Dire Dawa Kenema drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 17, 2022.

The match was played at Bahir Dar Stadium in Bahir Dar.