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Diósgyőr II vs Debrecen II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Debrecen II
Debrecen II
T. Farkas 90'
I. Egri 71'
B. Nyikos 24'
5/10/2026NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 28DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Diósgyőr II41%
×Draw23%
Debrecen II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diósgyőr II
1.75
Debrecen II
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Diósgyőr II
1.73
Debrecen II
1.62

allows per match

Diósgyőr II
1.69
Debrecen II
1.77

finishing

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par
Debrecen II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diósgyőr II ↓

Debrecen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Diósgyőr II or draw
63%
Diósgyőr II or Debrecen II
77%
Draw or Debrecen II
59%

Winning margin

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
21%
Debrecen II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
83%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
52%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
25%
Debrecen II 1+ goals
81%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
49%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
52%
Debrecen II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diósgyőr II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 110 matches

Debrecen II away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diósgyőr II attack 1.73 + Debrecen II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

Debrecen II attack 1.62 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Diósgyőr II scores more
41%
level
23%
Debrecen II scores more
37%

Diósgyőr II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Diósgyőr II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
B. Nyikos
67'
K. Lichy
71'
I. Egri
90'
T. Farkas
Diósgyőr
Debrecen
P. Takács
Manager: P. Takács
P. Máté
Manager: P. Máté

Match Recap: Diósgyőr II vs Debrecen II

Debrecen II beat Diósgyőr II 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on May 10, 2026.

Goals: B. Nyikos (24'), I. Egri (71'), T. Farkas (90').

The match was played at DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya in Miskolc.