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Debrecen II vs Diósgyőr II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Debrecen II
Debrecen II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
11/17/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 16Nagyerdei Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Debrecen II50%
×Draw23%
Diósgyőr II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Debrecen II
1.86
Diósgyőr II
1.34

Debrecen II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 112 away

creates per match

Debrecen II
2.03
Diósgyőr II
1.30

allows per match

Debrecen II
1.38
Diósgyőr II
1.70

finishing

Debrecen II+0.00on par
Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debrecen II ↓

Diósgyőr II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Debrecen II or draw
72%
Debrecen II or Diósgyőr II
77%
Draw or Diósgyőr II
50%

Winning margin

Debrecen II wins by 2+
28%
Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Debrecen II 1+ goals
84%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
55%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
28%
Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
74%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
39%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Debrecen II (draw refunded)
64%
Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debrecen II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

Diósgyőr II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debrecen II attack 2.03 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.86

Diósgyőr II attack 1.30 + Debrecen II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Debrecen II scores more
50%
level
23%
Diósgyőr II scores more
28%

Debrecen II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Debrecen II vs Diósgyőr II

Debrecen II and Diósgyőr II drew 2-2 in NB III - Northeast on November 17, 2023.

The match was played at Nagyerdei Stadion in Debrecen.