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Diocesano vs Badajoz II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Diocesano
Diocesano
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Badajoz II
Badajoz II
10/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 5Estadio Manuel Sánchez Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Diocesano49%
×Draw27%
Badajoz II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diocesano
1.42
Badajoz II
0.92

Diocesano creates 54% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 15 away

creates per match

Diocesano
1.71
Badajoz II
0.73

allows per match

Diocesano
1.11
Badajoz II
1.13

finishing

Diocesano+0.00on par
Badajoz II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diocesano ↓

Badajoz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Diocesano or draw
76%
Diocesano or Badajoz II
73%
Draw or Badajoz II
51%

Winning margin

Diocesano wins by 2+
24%
Badajoz II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Diocesano 1+ goals
76%
Diocesano 2+ goals
41%
Diocesano 3+ goals
17%
Badajoz II 1+ goals
60%
Badajoz II 2+ goals
23%
Badajoz II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Diocesano (draw refunded)
67%
Badajoz II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diocesano at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.11 · 93 matches

Badajoz II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diocesano attack 1.71 + Badajoz II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Badajoz II attack 0.73 + Diocesano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Diocesano scores more
49%
level
27%
Badajoz II scores more
24%

Diocesano at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Diocesano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Diocesano 3–2 Badajoz II

Diocesano beat Badajoz II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Sánchez Delgado in Cáceres.