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Badajoz II vs Diocesano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Badajoz II
Badajoz II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Diocesano
Diocesano
2/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 20Campo B Eusebio Bejarano Vilaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Badajoz II30%
×Draw26%
Diocesano43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz II
1.13
Diocesano
1.41

Diocesano creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 93 away

creates per match

Badajoz II
0.87
Diocesano
1.42

allows per match

Badajoz II
1.40
Diocesano
1.38

finishing

Badajoz II+0.00on par
Diocesano+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz II ↓

Diocesano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Badajoz II or draw
57%
Badajoz II or Diocesano
74%
Draw or Diocesano
70%

Winning margin

Badajoz II wins by 2+
12%
Diocesano wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Badajoz II 1+ goals
68%
Badajoz II 2+ goals
31%
Badajoz II 3+ goals
11%
Diocesano 1+ goals
76%
Diocesano 2+ goals
41%
Diocesano 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Badajoz II (draw refunded)
41%
Diocesano (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz II at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Diocesano away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz II attack 0.87 + Diocesano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Diocesano attack 1.42 + Badajoz II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Badajoz II scores more
30%
level
26%
Diocesano scores more
43%

Diocesano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Diocesano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Badajoz II 1–3 Diocesano

Diocesano beat Badajoz II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Campo B Eusebio Bejarano Vilaro in Badajoz.