Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 Vukovar: Result & Stats | HNL

Dinamo Zagreb

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vukovar

D. Beljo 84', 42'

M. Bakrar 68'

L. Banovec 74'

2/2/2026

HNL · Round 20Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb65%

×Draw21%

Vukovar14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchVukovar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.78

Dinamo Zagreb

1.94

Vukovar

0.78

Dinamo Zagreb creates 149% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

2.15

creates per match

0.83

0.74

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.15

Vukovar

0.83

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.74

Vukovar

1.72

+0.78scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.78scores more

Vukovar+0.06on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

Vukovar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

86%

Dinamo Zagreb or Vukovar

79%

Draw or Vukovar

35%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

39%

Vukovar wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

58%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

30%

Vukovar 1+ goals

54%

Vukovar 2+ goals

18%

Vukovar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

82%

Vukovar (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 14 matches

Vukovar away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.72 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.15 + Vukovar defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.94

Vukovar attack 0.83 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

65%

level

21%

Vukovar scores more

14%

Dinamo Zagreb at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Beljo

Dinamo Zagreb · F

8.5

Match Events

30'

34'

42'

46'

62'

J. Elez← M. Ticinovic

67'

G. Vidovic← L. Stojkovic

67'

M. Bakrar← F. Topic

68'

M. Bakrar↳ M. Zajc

71'

D. Vinkovic← A. Jurilj

74'

L. Banovec↳ K. Calhanoglu

78'

M. Soldo← M. Zajc

84'

D. Beljo↳ M. Perez Vinlof

85'

C. Varela← A. Hoxha

85'

N. Mikic← M. Valincic

86'

N. Pajvancic← R. Gonzalez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoVukovar

Overview

63%Possession37%

27Total Shots6

3.11Expected Goals (xG)0.43

8Corners1

9Fouls11

Shots

27Total Shots6

10On Target2

11Off Target2

6Blocked2

17Inside Box3

10Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

504Total Passes300

432Accurate Passes214

86%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0