Dinamo Zagreb 3–0 Vukovar: Result & Stats | HNL

Dinamo Zagreb

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vukovar

S. Kulenovic 77'

D. Beljo 65'

G. Vidovic 45'

8/8/2025

HNL · Round 2Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb69%

×Draw19%

Vukovar12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchVukovar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.73

Dinamo Zagreb

2.08

Vukovar

0.73

Dinamo Zagreb creates 185% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

2.26

creates per match

0.75

0.71

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.26

Vukovar

0.75

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.71

Vukovar

1.91

+0.67scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.67scores more

Vukovar-0.02on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

Vukovar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

88%

Dinamo Zagreb or Vukovar

81%

Draw or Vukovar

31%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

44%

Vukovar wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

87%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

61%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

34%

Vukovar 1+ goals

52%

Vukovar 2+ goals

17%

Vukovar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

85%

Vukovar (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches

Vukovar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.26 + Vukovar defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.08

Vukovar attack 0.75 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

69%

level

19%

Vukovar scores more

12%

Dinamo Zagreb at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Misic

Dinamo Zagreb · M

8.3

Match Events

32'

Keyendrah Simmonds

44'

Marin Pilj

45'

G. Vidovic↳ S. McKenna

46'

R. Camacho← K. Simmonds

58'

T. Knoll← L. Klanac

58'

V. Caic← M. Pilj

63'

L. Stojkovic← G. Villar

65'

D. Beljo↳ M. Lisica

69'

B. Goda← M. Perez Vinlof

69'

A. Hoxha← G. Vidovic

69'

S. Kulenovic← D. Beljo

71'

E. Shabani← J. Biljan

77'

S. Kulenovic↳ A. Hoxha

81'

C. Varela← M. Lisica

88'

Mario Tadić

88'

Mario TadićCard upgrade

89'

J. Suver← L. Banovec

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoVukovar

Overview

72%Possession28%

28Total Shots9

3.70Expected Goals (xG)0.28

16Corners6

9Fouls10

Shots

28Total Shots9

11On Target3

11Off Target3

6Blocked3

24Inside Box3

4Outside Box6

Passing

72%Possession28%

535Total Passes202

471Accurate Passes139

88%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

9Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1