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Dinamo Zagreb vs Ballkani — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ballkani
Ballkani
12/14/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 6Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb55%
×Draw23%
Ballkani22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zagreb
1.77
Ballkani
1.03

Dinamo Zagreb creates 72% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb
2.20
Ballkani
1.47

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb
0.60
Ballkani
1.33

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par
Ballkani+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

Ballkani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw
78%
Dinamo Zagreb or Ballkani
77%
Draw or Ballkani
45%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+
31%
Ballkani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals
83%
Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
53%
Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals
26%
Ballkani 1+ goals
64%
Ballkani 2+ goals
28%
Ballkani 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)
71%
Ballkani (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Ballkani away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.20 + Ballkani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ballkani attack 1.47 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more
55%
level
23%
Ballkani scores more
22%

Dinamo Zagreb at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Zagreb vs Ballkani

Dinamo Zagreb beat Ballkani 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb.