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Ballkani vs Dinamo Zagreb — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Ballkani
Ballkani
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
10/5/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 2Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ballkani59%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Zagreb18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballkani
1.74
Dinamo Zagreb
0.84

Ballkani creates 107% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ballkani
1.88
Dinamo Zagreb
0.80

allows per match

Ballkani
0.88
Dinamo Zagreb
1.60

finishing

Ballkani+0.00on par
Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballkani ↓

Dinamo Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ballkani or draw
82%
Ballkani or Dinamo Zagreb
77%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb
41%

Winning margin

Ballkani wins by 2+
33%
Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ballkani 1+ goals
82%
Ballkani 2+ goals
52%
Ballkani 3+ goals
25%
Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals
57%
Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
21%
Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ballkani (draw refunded)
77%
Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballkani at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Dinamo Zagreb away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballkani attack 1.88 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.74

Dinamo Zagreb attack 0.80 + Ballkani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ballkani scores more
59%
level
23%
Dinamo Zagreb scores more
18%

Ballkani at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ballkani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ballkani vs Dinamo Zagreb

Ballkani beat Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri in Pristina.