Dinamo Zagreb U19 4–2 Chelsea U19: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Chelsea U19

F. Topić 48'

A. Krdžalić 34'

G. Rukavina 20'

L. Gubijan 6'

L. Castledine 81', 28'

9/6/2022

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Stadion Kranjčevićeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb U1945%

×Draw23%

Chelsea U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Zagreb U19Expected goals in this matchChelsea U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.43

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.76

Chelsea U19

1.43

Dinamo Zagreb U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

1.64

creates per match

1.94

0.91

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.64

Chelsea U19

1.94

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

Chelsea U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Chelsea U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb U19 ↓

Chelsea U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or draw

69%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or Chelsea U19

77%

Draw or Chelsea U19

55%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

24%

Chelsea U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

83%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

52%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

26%

Chelsea U19 1+ goals

76%

Chelsea U19 2+ goals

42%

Chelsea U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Chelsea U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Chelsea U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 1.64 + Chelsea U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

Chelsea U19 attack 1.94 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

45%

level

23%

Chelsea U19 scores more

31%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

L. Gubijan↳ F. Topić

9'

B. Hughes

20'

G. Rukavina↳ I. Cvetko

28'

L. Castledine↳ L. Hall

34'

A. Krdžalić↳ G. Rukavina

44'

V. Caic

44'

L. Hall

44'

L. Prslja

48'

F. Topić↳ F. Čuljak

50'

M. Mothersille← K. Dyer

55'

M. Brkljača← V. Čaić

66'

M. Šakota← F. Topić

66'

L. Vrbančić← F. Čuljak

77'

Z. Sturge

81'

M. Ruškovački← I. Cvetko

81'

L. Ilecic← G. Rukavina

81'

L. Castledine↳ A. Gilchrist

86'

L. Flower← S. Thomas

86'

S. Rak-Sakyi← Z. Sturge

89'

L. Gubijan

90+3'

B. Humphreys

90+1'

A. Ampah← J. Soonsup-Bell

Dinamo

Chelsea

1

Curd

4

Humphreys

5

▼

Sturge

2

Hughes

3

A

Gilchrist

8

A

Hall

11

⚽2

Castledin

6

▼

Dyer

9

▼

Soonsup-B

7

▼

10

1

4

5

2

⚽

Gubijan

3

A

▼

Cvetko

11

⚽A

▼

Topić

10

⚽

Krdžalić

8

Lukanić

6

▼

Čaić

7

⚽A

▼

Rukavina

9

A

▼

Čuljak

Manager: I. Senzen

55'▲M. Brkljača←▼V. Čaić

66'▲M. Šakota←▼F. Topić

66'▲L. Vrbančić←▼F. Čuljak

81'▲M. Ruškovački←▼I. Cvetko

81'▲L. Ilecic←▼G. Rukavina

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

18Brkljača16Šakota15Vrbančić13Ruškovački17Ilecic14Katalinić12Zrilić

Manager: E. Brand

50'▲M. Mothersille←▼K. Dyer

86'▲L. Flower←▼S. Thomas

86'▲S. Rak-Sakyi←▼Z. Sturge

90+1'▲A. Ampah←▼J. Soonsup-Bell

Chelsea U19 substitutes

14Mothersille15Flower16Rak-Sakyi17Ampah13Merrick12Akomeah18George