Chelsea U19 2–2 Dinamo Zagreb U19: Result & Stats

Chelsea U19

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Zagreb U19

L. McCormick 87', 77'

A. Marin 57', 40'

4/3/2019

UEFA Youth League · Quarter-finalsCobham Training Centre (Stoke d'Abernon, Surrey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chelsea U1968%

×Draw17%

Dinamo Zagreb U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chelsea U19Expected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.15

Chelsea U19

2.58

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.15

Chelsea U19 creates 124% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

3.25

creates per match

0.91

1.38

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Chelsea U19

3.25

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

allows per match

Chelsea U19

1.38

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea U19+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea U19 ↓

Dinamo Zagreb U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Chelsea U19 or draw

85%

Chelsea U19 or Dinamo Zagreb U19

83%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb U19

32%

Winning margin

Chelsea U19 wins by 2+

46%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chelsea U19 1+ goals

92%

Chelsea U19 2+ goals

72%

Chelsea U19 3+ goals

47%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

68%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

32%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chelsea U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea U19 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Dinamo Zagreb U19 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea U19 attack 3.25 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.58

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 0.91 + Chelsea U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Chelsea U19 scores more

68%

level

17%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

15%

Chelsea U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Chelsea U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

V. Radonja← F. Antovski

40'

A. Marin

57'

G. McEachran← C. Brown

57'

A. Marin↳ E. Julardžija

77'

L. McCormick↳ G. McEachran

78'

O. Kočar← E. Julardžija

79'

R. Baturina← L. Šipoš

84'

L. Pavlak← M. Gjira

87'

L. McCormick↳ C. Gallagher

Chelsea

Dinamo

1

Horkaš

8

▼

Gjira

6

Šutalo

3

▼

2

5

11

4

10

A

▼

Julardžij

7

⚽2

Marin

9

▼

1

3

4

2

5

8

⚽2

McCormick

7

A

Gallagher

11

Familio-C

6

Gilmour

10

▼

Brown

9

Redan

Manager: J. Edwards

57'▲G. McEachran←▼C. Brown

Chelsea U19 substitutes

12McEachran18Lewis13Tié16Nunn15Lavinier14Mola17Lawrence

Manager: I. Jovičević

36'▲V. Radonja←▼F. Antovski

78'▲O. Kočar←▼E. Julardžija

79'▲R. Baturina←▼L. Šipoš

84'▲L. Pavlak←▼M. Gjira

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

13Radonja14Kočar18Baturina15Pavlak12Josipović17Kapitanović16Rešetar