Dinamo Zagreb U19 0–0 Basel U19: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Basel U19

11/29/2023

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundStadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb U1949%

×Draw31%

Basel U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Zagreb U19Expected goals in this matchBasel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.62

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.16

Basel U19

0.62

Dinamo Zagreb U19 creates 87% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

1.64

creates per match

0.33

0.91

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.64

Basel U19

0.33

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

Basel U19

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Basel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb U19 ↓

Basel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or draw

80%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or Basel U19

69%

Draw or Basel U19

51%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

21%

Basel U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

69%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

32%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

11%

Basel U19 1+ goals

46%

Basel U19 2+ goals

13%

Basel U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Basel U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Basel U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 1.64 + Basel U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.16

Basel U19 attack 0.33 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

49%

level

31%

Basel U19 scores more

20%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

I. Cvetko

42'

Z. Koscevic

57'

E. Ismaili

67'

T. Miljak← V. Gec

68'

K. Trondle

72'

Z. Koscevic

72'

Z. Koscevic

76'

78'

82'

84'

85'

Cobel Sow Garcia← E. Senaya

85'

A. Ulli← A. Kayombo

90'

L. Frokaj← Y. Ryter

90'

F. Di Brizzi← A. Akalé

Dinamo

Basel

1

6

5

4

3

10

2

9

▼

Kayombo

8

▼

Ryter

11

▼

Akalé

7

▼

1

4

16

3

10

15

▼

Graonić

6

Kujundžić

8

▼

Baković

9

Košćević

7

▼

Gec

11

Majić

Manager: I. Banović

67'▲T. Miljak←▼V. Gec

76'▲L. Rimac←▼T. Baković

82'▲A. Sušak←▼B. Graonić

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

18Miljak14Rimac2Sušak12Rajić13Zahora5Zebić17Šunta

Manager: M. Cantaluppi

85'▲Cobel Sow Garcia←▼E. Senaya

85'▲A. Ulli←▼A. Kayombo

90'▲L. Frokaj←▼Y. Ryter

90'▲F. Di Brizzi←▼A. Akalé

Basel U19 substitutes

14Garcia13Ulli17Frokaj15Brizzi18Emch12Chirao16Schreiber

UEFA Youth League: Dinamo Zagreb U19 0–0 Basel U19

Dinamo Zagreb U19 and Basel U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb.

Dinamo Zagreb U19 vs Basel U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Dinamo Zagreb U19 0–0 Basel U19