Basel U19 2–0 Dinamo Zagreb U19: Result & Stats

Basel U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dinamo Zagreb U19

R. Beney 33'

A. Onyegbule 14'

11/8/2023

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundLeichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Basel U1956%

×Draw23%

Dinamo Zagreb U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Basel U19Expected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.05

Basel U19

1.85

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.05

Basel U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.80

creates per match

0.91

1.20

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Basel U19

1.80

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

allows per match

Basel U19

1.20

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Basel U19+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel U19 ↓

Dinamo Zagreb U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Basel U19 or draw

79%

Basel U19 or Dinamo Zagreb U19

77%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb U19

44%

Winning margin

Basel U19 wins by 2+

32%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Basel U19 1+ goals

84%

Basel U19 2+ goals

55%

Basel U19 3+ goals

28%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

65%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

28%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Basel U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Dinamo Zagreb U19 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel U19 attack 1.80 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 0.91 + Basel U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Basel U19 scores more

56%

level

23%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

21%

Basel U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Basel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

33'

35'

40'

46'

46'

46'

52'

B. Graonic

55'

A. Akalé← A. Kayombo

55'

E. Senaya← Cobel Sow Garcia

56'

E. Jordan

67'

L. Vrbancic

69'

E. Ismaili

77'

L. Frokaj← A. Onyegbule

84'

S. Šunta← L. Vrbančić

88'

V. Caic

90'

N. Chirao← E. Jordan

Basel

Dinamo

1

4

16

3

2

▼

Sušak

10

▼

5

6

9

7

8

▼

1

5

4

3

10

⚽

▼

Onyegbule

6

Xhemalija

11

Zé

2

▼

Jordan

9

▼

Kayombo

7

⚽

▼

Beney

8

▼

Garcia

Manager: M. Cantaluppi

46'▲Y. Ryter←▼R. Beney

55'▲A. Akalé←▼A. Kayombo

55'▲E. Senaya←▼Cobel Sow Garcia

77'▲L. Frokaj←▼A. Onyegbule

90'▲N. Chirao←▼E. Jordan

Basel U19 substitutes

15Ryter13Akalé16Senaya17Frokaj12Chirao18Emch14Bashaj

Manager: I. Banović

46'▲T. Majić←▼L. Rimac

46'▲B. Graonić←▼A. Sušak

84'▲S. Šunta←▼L. Vrbančić

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

11Majić15Graonić14Šunta12Bodetić13Cindrić17Zahora19Kujundžić

Match Recap: Basel U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19

Basel U19 beat Dinamo Zagreb U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 8, 2023.

Goals: A. Onyegbule (14'), R. Beney (33').

The match was played at Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob in Basel.

Basel U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Basel U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19