Dinamo Zagreb U19 1–0 Atalanta U19: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atalanta U19

B. Karrica 49'

9/18/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Stadion Hitrec Kacian

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb U1951%

×Draw23%

Atalanta U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Zagreb U19Expected goals in this matchAtalanta U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.30

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.87

Atalanta U19

1.30

Dinamo Zagreb U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.64

creates per match

1.70

0.91

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.64

Atalanta U19

1.70

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

Atalanta U19

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Atalanta U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb U19 ↓

Atalanta U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or draw

73%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or Atalanta U19

77%

Draw or Atalanta U19

49%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

28%

Atalanta U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

85%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

56%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

29%

Atalanta U19 1+ goals

73%

Atalanta U19 2+ goals

37%

Atalanta U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Atalanta U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Atalanta U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 1.64 + Atalanta U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.87

Atalanta U19 attack 1.70 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

51%

level

23%

Atalanta U19 scores more

27%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

B. Karrica↳ L. Šipoš

67'

A. Cortinovis← S. Panada

75'

O. Kočar← B. Karrica

78'

G. Brogni← M. Ruggeri

82'

V. Radonja← A. Marin

86'

J. Italen← D. Ghislandi

90'

D. Stranput← T. Krizmanić

Dinamo

Atalanta

1

Gelmi

6

Guth

2

▼

Ghislandi

3

▼

Ruggeri

5

Okoli

8

Gyabuaa

4

▼

10

9

11

7

1

5

2

3

4

6

10

▼

Krizmanić

8

Janković

7

▼

Marin

9

A

Šipoš

11

⚽

▼

Karrica

Manager: I. Jovičević

75'▲O. Kočar←▼B. Karrica

82'▲V. Radonja←▼A. Marin

90'▲D. Stranput←▼T. Krizmanić

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

15Kočar13Radonja17Stranput12Krkalic18Svržnjak16Vasilj14Vukasović

Manager: M. Brambilla

67'▲A. Cortinovis←▼S. Panada

78'▲G. Brogni←▼M. Ruggeri

86'▲J. Italen←▼D. Ghislandi

Atalanta U19 substitutes

16Cortinovis14Brogni17Italen12Bielli13Bergonzi18Sidibe15Milani